Predicting crimes in urban environments is crucial for public safety, yet existing prediction methods often struggle to align the knowledge across diverse cities that vary dramatically in data availability of specific crime types. We propose HYpernetwork-enhanced Spatial Temporal Learning (HYSTL), a framework that can effectively train a unified, stronger crime predictor without assuming identical crime types in different cities' records. In HYSTL, instead of parameterising a dedicated predictor per crime type, a hypernetwork is designed to dynamically generate parameters for the prediction function conditioned on the crime type of interest. To bridge the semantic gap between different crime types, a structured crime knowledge graph is built, where the learned representations of crimes are used as the input to the hypernetwork to facilitate parameter generation. As such, when making predictions for each crime type, the predictor is additionally guided by its intricate association with other relevant crime types. Extensive experiments are performed on two cities with non-overlapping crime types, and the results demonstrate HYSTL outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

Crime hotspot prediction is critical for ensuring urban safety and effective law enforcement, yet it remains challenging due to the complex spatial dependencies inherent in criminal activity. The previous approaches tended to use classical algorithms such as the KDE and SVM to model data distributions and decision boundaries. The methods often fail to capture these spatial relationships, treating crime events as independent and ignoring geographical interactions. To address this, we propose a novel framework based on Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs), which explicitly model spatial dependencies by representing crime data as a graph. In this graph, nodes represent discrete geographic grid cells and edges capture proximity relationships. Using the Chicago Crime Dataset, we engineer spatial features and train a multi-layer GCN model to classify crime types and predict high-risk zones. Our approach achieves 88% classification accuracy, significantly outperforming traditional methods. Additionally, the model generates interpretable heat maps of crime hotspots, demonstrating the practical utility of graph-based learning for predictive policing and spatial criminology.

With the acceleration of urbanization, the spatiotemporal characteristics of criminal activities have become increasingly complex. Accurate prediction of crime distribution is crucial for optimizing the allocation of police resources and preventing crime. This paper proposes LGSTime, a crime spatiotemporal prediction model that integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and the Multi-head Sparse Self-attention mechanism. LSTM and GRU capture long-term dependencies in crime time series, such as seasonality and periodicity, through their unique gating mechanisms. The Multi-head Sparse Self-attention mechanism, on the other hand, focuses on both temporal and spatial features of criminal events simultaneously through parallel processing and sparsification techniques, significantly improving computational efficiency and prediction accuracy. The integrated model leverages the strengths of each technique to better handle complex spatiotemporal data. Experimental findings demonstrate that the model attains optimal performance across four real - world crime datasets. In comparison to the CNN model, it exhibits performance enhancements of 2.8\%, 1.9\%, and 1.4\% in the Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) metrics respectively. These results offer a valuable reference for tackling the challenges in crime prediction.

This paper aims at improving predictive crime models by extending the mathematical framework of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) tailored to general spatiotemporal problems and appropriately applying them. Recent advancements in the geospatial-temporal modelling field have focused on the inclusion of geographical weighting in their deep learning models to account for nonspatial stationarity, which is often apparent in spatial data. We formulate a novel semi-analytical approach to solving Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR), and applying it to London crime data. The results produce high-accuracy predictive evaluation scores that affirm the validity of the assumptions and approximations in the approach. This paper presents mathematical advances to the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Neural Network (GTWNN) framework, which offers a novel contribution to the field. Insights from past literature are harmoniously employed with the assumptions and approximations to generate three mathematical extensions to GTWNN's framework. Combinations of these extensions produce five novel ANNs, applied to the London and Detroit datasets. The results suggest that one of the extensions is redundant and is generally surpassed by another extension, which we term the history-dependent module. The remaining extensions form three novel ANN designs that pose potential GTWNN improvements. We evaluated the efficacy of various models in both the London and Detroit crime datasets, highlighting the importance of accounting for specific geographic and temporal characteristics when selecting modelling strategies to improve model suitability. In general, the proposed methods provide the foundations for a more context-aware, accurate, and robust ANN approach in spatio-temporal modelling.

Predicting crime hotspots in a city is a complex and critical task with significant societal implications. Numerous spatiotemporal correlations and irregularities pose substantial challenges to this endeavor. Existing methods commonly employ fixed-time granularities and sequence prediction models. However, determining appropriate time granularities is difficult, leading to inaccurate predictions for specific time windows. For example, users might ask: What are the crime hotspots during 12:00-20:00? To address this issue, we introduce FlexiCrime, a novel event-centric framework for predicting crime hotspots with flexible time intervals. FlexiCrime incorporates a continuous-time attention network to capture correlations between crime events, which learns crime context features, representing general crime patterns across time points and locations. Furthermore, we introduce a type-aware spatiotemporal point process that learns crime-evolving features, measuring the risk of specific crime types at a given time and location by considering the frequency of past crime events. The crime context and evolving features together allow us to predict whether an urban area is a crime hotspot given a future time interval. To evaluate FlexiCrime's effectiveness, we conducted experiments using real-world datasets from two cities, covering twelve crime types. The results show that our model outperforms baseline techniques in predicting crime hotspots over flexible time intervals.

Effective spatio-temporal prediction frameworks play a crucial role in urban sensing applications, including traffic analysis, human mobility behavior modeling, and citywide crime prediction. However, the presence of data noise and label sparsity in spatio-temporal data presents significant challenges for existing neural network models in learning effective and robust region representations. To address these challenges, we propose a novel spatio-temporal graph masked autoencoder paradigm that explores generative self-supervised learning for effective spatio-temporal data augmentation. Our proposed framework introduces a spatial-temporal heterogeneous graph neural encoder that captures region-wise dependencies from heterogeneous data sources, enabling the modeling of diverse spatial dependencies. In our spatio-temporal self-supervised learning paradigm, we incorporate a masked autoencoding mechanism on node representations and structures. This mechanism automatically distills heterogeneous spatio-temporal dependencies across regions over time, enhancing the learning process of dynamic region-wise spatial correlations. To validate the effectiveness of our STGMAE framework, we conduct extensive experiments on various spatio-temporal mining tasks. We compare our approach against state-of-the-art baselines. The results of these evaluations demonstrate the superiority of our proposed framework in terms of performance and its ability to address the challenges of spatial and temporal data noise and sparsity in practical urban sensing scenarios.

As various types of crime continue to threaten public safety and economic development, predicting the occurrence of multiple types of crimes becomes increasingly vital for effective prevention measures. Although extensive efforts have been made, most of them overlook the heterogeneity of different crime categories and fail to address the issue of imbalanced spatial distribution. In this work, we propose a Spatial-Temporal Mixture-of-Graph-Experts (ST-MoGE) framework for collective multiple-type crime prediction. To enhance the model's ability to identify diverse spatial-temporal dependencies and mitigate potential conflicts caused by spatial-temporal heterogeneity of different crime categories, we introduce an attentive-gated Mixture-of-Graph-Experts (MGEs) module to capture the distinctive and shared crime patterns of each crime category. Then, we propose Cross-Expert Contrastive Learning(CECL) to update the MGEs and force each expert to focus on specific pattern modeling, thereby reducing blending and redundancy. Furthermore, to address the issue of imbalanced spatial distribution, we propose a Hierarchical Adaptive Loss Re-weighting (HALR) approach to eliminate biases and insufficient learning of data-scarce regions. To evaluate the effectiveness of our methods, we conduct comprehensive experiments on two real-world crime datasets and compare our results with twelve advanced baselines. The experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our methods.

Deep learning crime predictive tools use past crime data and additional behavioral datasets to forecast future crimes. Nevertheless, these tools have been shown to suffer from unfair predictions across minority racial and ethnic groups. Current approaches to address this unfairness generally propose either pre-processing methods that mitigate the bias in the training datasets by applying corrections to crime counts based on domain knowledge or in-processing methods that are implemented as fairness regularizers to optimize for both accuracy and fairness. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning architecture that combines the power of these two approaches to increase prediction fairness. Our results show that the proposed model improves the fairness of crime predictions when compared to models with in-processing de-biasing approaches and with models without any type of bias correction, albeit at the cost of reducing accuracy.

Deep learning architectures enhanced with human mobility data have been shown to improve the accuracy of short-term crime prediction models trained with historical crime data. However, human mobility data may be scarce in some regions, negatively impacting the correct training of these models. To address this issue, we propose a novel transfer learning framework for short-term crime prediction models, whereby weights from the deep learning crime prediction models trained in source regions with plenty of mobility data are transferred to target regions to fine-tune their local crime prediction models and improve crime prediction accuracy. Our results show that the proposed transfer learning framework improves the F1 scores for target cities with mobility data scarcity, especially when the number of months of available mobility data is small. We also show that the F1 score improvements are pervasive across different types of crimes and diverse cities in the US.

Granularity and accuracy are two crucial factors for crime event prediction. Within fine-grained event classification, multiple criminal intents may alternately exhibit in preceding sequential events, and progress differently in next. Such intensive intent dynamics makes training models hard to capture unobserved intents, and thus leads to sub-optimal generalization performance, especially in the intertwining of numerous potential events. To capture comprehensive criminal intents, this paper proposes a fine-grained sequential crime prediction framework, CrimeAlarm, that equips with a novel mutual distillation strategy inspired by curriculum learning. During the early training phase, spot-shared criminal intents are captured through high-confidence sequence samples. In the later phase, spot-specific intents are gradually learned by increasing the contribution of low-confidence sequences. Meanwhile, the output probability distributions are reciprocally learned between prediction networks to model unobserved criminal intents. Extensive experiments show that CrimeAlarm outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of NDCG@5, with improvements of 4.51% for the NYC16 and 7.73% for the CHI18 in accuracy measures.